March 3 (Bloomberg) -- European two-year bonds fell, pushing
yields to their highest since December 2002, on rising
speculation the European Central Bank will raise interest rates
at least twice more this year.
Short-term bonds, among the most sensitive to changes in
monetary policy, posted the biggest two-week decline since
November after the ECB yesterday raised interest rates for a
second time in three months and President Jean-Claude Trichet
said the central bank is ``ready to do whatever is necessary.''
Trichet ``gave the impression they may go further than the
market had been pricing in,'' said Bernard Walschots, head of
research at Rabobank Groep in Utrecht, the Netherlands. ``Two-
year bonds are going to sell off more during the year.''
Germany's benchmark two-year government bond yielded 3.11
percent by 5:10 p.m. in London, up from 2.90 percent two weeks
ago, and the highest since Dec. 5, 2002. It may reach 3.68
percent by year-end, Walschots said.
The price of the 2.75 percent bond due December 2007 fell
0.37, or 3.7 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,200) face amount, to 99.40
in the past two weeks. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Ten-
year bund yields rose 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point
to 3.59 percent.
A private survey today showed growth in service industries,
which makes up a third of the region's $9 trillion economy,
accelerated last month. The purchasing managers' index rose to
58.2 from 57 in January, the report by NTC Research Plc for Royal
Bank of Scotland Group Plc showed.
Increases `On Table'
``All the economic indicators are helping to confirm that
further rate increases are on the table,'' said John Davies, a
fixed-income strategist at WestLB AG in London.
The economy of the 12 euro nations will grow at the fastest
pace since 2000 in the first three quarters of the year, the
European Commission said today. Gross domestic product compared
with the previous three month period will expand around 0.7
percent in the first, second and third quarters of 2006, it said.
Manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 19 months in
the euro region last month, according to a similar survey of
purchasing managers by NTC Research Ltd. for Royal Bank of
Scotland Group Plc published March 1.
ECB policy makers boosted their benchmark rate yesterday for
the second time in three months, raising it by a quarter point to
2.5 percent, after inflation in the region stayed above the
bank's ceiling for 13 months. The ECB aims to keep inflation
below 2 percent. Consumer prices rose 2.3 percent in February, a
European Union report showed on March 1.
The ``adjustment of interest rates will continue to ensure
that medium to long-term inflation expectations remain solidly
anchored,'' Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt
yesterday. ``Upside risks to price stability prevail.''
Narrowing Spread
Further interest-rate increases from the ECB should help
contain inflation, which may help boost 10-year European bonds,
which are more sensitive to price increases, according to Andrew
Bosomworth, a fund manager at Pacific Investment Management Co.,
which manages the world's biggest bond fund.
``The ECB would probably like to see rates around 3 percent
by the end of the year,'' said Munich-based Bosomworth. ``In the
European market, it's better to be on the long end.''
The difference in yield, or the spread, between 10-year
European bonds and shorter-dated euro region debt has narrowed in
the last month, from 53 basis points on Feb. 3, to 48 basis
points today.
The economy of the dozen nations using the euro may expand
about 2.1 percent this year, up from a Dec. 1 forecast of about
1.9 percent, Trichet said at the briefing. Inflation may average
2.2 percent, rising from an earlier estimate of 2.1 percent.
Rate Forecasts
Traders have raised bets that borrowing costs will increase
to 3 percent this year, futures trading shows. The yield on euro
three-month interest-rate futures due in December and traded
electronically on the London International Financial Futures
Exchange, rose 12 basis points this week to 3.30 percent.
The contracts settle to the three-month euro interbank
offered rate, which has averaged 0.16 percentage point over the
ECB rate since the euro's start in 1999.
Speculation borrowing costs in the region will rise further
has hurt benchmark debt, with European bonds of all maturities
losing investors 1.1 percent, including reinvested interest,
since the year began, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. data.
Debt maturing in one to three years sold by European
governments handed investors a 2.06 percent return in 2005, the
worst performance since 1999, Merrill data shows.
The yield on the benchmark French 10-year bond rose 11 basis
points this week to 3.60 percent, and the yield on the similar-
maturity Italian bond rose 10 basis points to 3.80 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Prashant Rao in London at
prao3@bloomberg.net